The latest Ipsos poll conducted in South Africa from 23 October to 1 December 2023, has revealed that the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) could potentially surpass the Democratic Alliance (DA) and position itself as the official opposition.
This comes at a time when the DA faced criticism for its claim of surpassing the African National Congress (ANC) in new voter registrations and re-registrations.
The DA made an announcement over the weekend stating, “In an important milestone, the DA proudly announces that, for the first time, we have outperformed the ANC in new voter registrations and re-registrations. The most recent registration data highlights the DA’s success in securing the largest share of new and re-registrations.”
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However, the Ipsos poll data contradicts this claim, indicating that the EFF performs marginally better than the DA, potentially positioning itself as the official opposition. It is important to note that the fieldwork for this poll was conducted before the establishment of the uMkhonto weSizwe party, and experts anticipate that the ANC may lose some votes to this new party.
The poll also suggests that the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) could have around 5% support on a national level, primarily coming from KwaZulu-Natal where the party is a strong contender. Action SA, on the other hand, enjoys support primarily in Gauteng.
However, Ipsos cautions against taking these results at face value, as they include 10.1% of the registered electorate who have not aligned themselves with a particular political party.
These individuals are indicated as “will not vote,” “refuse to answer,” or “don’t know.” Ipsos emphasizes that delving deeper into this data can provide valuable insights into the undecided vote and acknowledges that those who abstain from expressing a preference may not align with the majority of the electorate on voting day.
Furthermore, the final results of the upcoming election could be influenced by voter turnout. The Electoral Commission of South Africa reported that over a million people had been added to the voters’ roll following the conclusion of the voter registration weekend.
This brings the total number of eligible voters to 27.4 million, with more than 77% of those who registered over the past two weekends being under the age of 29.
President Cyril Ramaphosa is expected to announce the election date during the State of the Nation Address on Thursday, which will set the stage for a highly anticipated and closely contested election.
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